TVM Global Trending Elections 100 IndexLIVE TELEMETRY
Multi-source electoral momentum telemetry scoring 100 global contests across social discourse, voter search volume Z-scores, media diffusion, 14-day polling shifts, and prediction market spreads.
π’ Live 15s Sync
Election VMS & Dual-Vector Scoring Methodology
Mathematical FrameworkMathematical Derivation & Dynamic Sub-Factor Weighting
Master Election VMS Formula (0 - 1,000 pts Scale):
Election VMS = 250 V_Social + 250 G_Search + 200 M_News + 150 Ξ_Polls + 100 K_Catalyst + 50 Ξ©_Market
Where all sub-factor metrics are baseline-normalized percentile ranks (0.0 β 1.0) prior to factor weight multiplication.
Attention Velocity Score (0 - 100 Scale):
Attention Velocity = 0.40 V_Social + 0.40 G_Search + 0.20 M_News
Measures pure public attention acceleration across X, Reddit, TikTok, search inquiries, and global media mentions.
Electoral Stance Vector:
Polling Margin (14d Average) vs. Prediction Market Win Probability (Ξ©_Market)
Synthesizes RealClearPolitics / FiveThirtyEight polling margins alongside real-money Polymarket and Kalshi odds.
V_Social (25%)Rate-of-change in public political discourse.
G_Search (25%)Voter inquiry & policy search Z-scores.
M_News (20%)Multi-publisher media velocity & headlines.
Ξ_Polls (15%)14-day polling margin velocity & direction.
K_Catalyst (10%)Real-world triggers: debates, bills, scandals.
Ξ©_Market (5%)Prediction market odds volatility & spreads.
7 Dynamic Momentum Status States:
β EXPLODING β’ π₯ SURGING β’ π RISING β’ βοΈ STABLE β’ β‘ VOLATILE β’ π FADING β’ π€ DORMANT
Anti-Gaming Shield (C_shield):
Cross-Signal Correlation (30%) + Source Diversity (25%) + Bot Probability (25%) + Geographic Balance (20%). If C_shield < 50.0, attach β οΈ High Manipulation Risk and cap rank at #50.
Contest Type:Showing 100 election contests
| Rank | Country & Election Contest | Momentum Status | Election VMS | Attention Velocity & Stance | Top Driver | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1+7 |  US Midterms β Pennsylvania Senate Key BattlegroundUnited StatesSenate | π₯ SURGING | 954/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity96/100 Toss-up (49β49)52% Win | π·οΈ Economy & Energy | |
#2+11 |  Sweden Riksdag General ElectionSwedenParliamentary | β EXPLODING | 941/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity93/100 Red-Green 48.4% vs Bloc 46.1%58% Win | π·οΈ Security & NATO Integration | |
#3+4 | Georgia Gubernatorial Open Seat Contest United StatesGubernatorial | π₯ SURGING | 928/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity91/100 Lead +1.8% (50β48)54% Win | π·οΈ Voting Rights & Suburb Swing | |
#4+2 |  UK Parliamentary Red Wall & Blue Wall BattlegroundsUnited KingdomParliamentary | π RISING | 916/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity89/100 Labour 41% vs Cons 28% vs Reform 19%68% Win | π·οΈ NHS Reform & Public Sector Growth | |
#5+5 |  Japan House of Representatives General ElectionJapanParliamentary | β‘ VOLATILE | 905/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity88/100 LDP-Komeito 218 vs Opposition 247 seats49% Win | π·οΈ Inflation & Coalition Stability | |
#6-1 |  France Presidential Election β Post-Macron SuccessionFrancePresidential | π RISING | 894/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity87/100 Runoff Model: RN 51% vs Center-Left 49%48% Win | π·οΈ Immigration & Fiscal Deficit | |
#7+6 | US Senate Michigan β Rust Belt Battleground United StatesSenate | π₯ SURGING | 887/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity86/100 Lead +1.2% (50.6β49.4)53% Win | π·οΈ Auto Manufacturing & EV Tariffs | |
#8+3 |  Germany Bundestag Federal Election & Coalition TalksGermanyParliamentary | π₯ SURGING | 879/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity85/100 CDU/CSU 32% vs AfD 20% vs SPD 16%76% Win | π·οΈ Industrial Competitiveness & Energy Costs | |
#9+8 |  Brazil Presidential Election β Planalto ContestBrazilPresidential | β EXPLODING | 872/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity85/100 Lula 44% vs TarcΓsio 41% (Toss-up)51% Win | π·οΈ Fiscal Deficit & Supreme Court Powers | |
#10+1 |  Canada 45th Federal Election β House of CommonsCanadaParliamentary | π RISING | 865/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity84/100 CPC 42% vs LPC 24% vs NDP 18%84% Win | π·οΈ Housing Affordability & Carbon Tax | |
#11+4 |  Australia Federal Election β House & SenateAustraliaParliamentary | π RISING | 854/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity83/100 2PP: Labor 50.5% vs Coalition 49.5%52% Win | π·οΈ Interest Rates & Clean Energy Targets | |
#12+9 |  India Bihar Legislative Assembly ElectionIndiaParliamentary | β EXPLODING | 848/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity84/100 NDA 124 vs Mahagathbandhan 119 seats55% Win | π·οΈ Caste Census & Youth Employment | |
#13+3 | US Senate Wisconsin β Dairy State Battleground United StatesSenate | π RISING | 841/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity82/100 Lead +1.5% (50.5β49.0)54% Win | π·οΈ Dairy Trade & Supreme Court Balance | |
#14+7 |  South Korea 21st Presidential ElectionSouth KoreaPresidential | β‘ VOLATILE | 835/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity82/100 DPK 46% vs PPP 38% vs Rebuilding Korea 12%59% Win | π·οΈ Judicial Probes & Semiconductor Subsidies | |
#15+2 |  Mexico Chamber of Deputies & Gubernatorial MidtermsMexicoParliamentary | π RISING | 828/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity81/100 Morena Coalition 54% vs Opposition 38%79% Win | π·οΈ Judicial Reform & Nearshoring Trade | |
#16+5 |  Taiwan 17th Presidential & Legislative Yuan RaceTaiwanPresidential | π RISING | 821/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity80/100 DPP 40% vs KMT 34% vs TPP 22%57% Win | π·οΈ Cross-Strait Security & Energy Independence | |
#17+8 |  South Africa Municipal & Metropolitan ElectionsSouth AfricaMunicipal | β EXPLODING | 814/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity80/100 GNU Coalition 58% vs MK Party 22% vs EFF 12%64% Win | π·οΈ Government of National Unity & Municipal Water | |
#18+3 |  Poland Presidential Election β Belweder ContestPolandPresidential | π₯ SURGING | 807/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity79/100 Runoff: Civic Coalition 52% vs PiS 48%56% Win | π·οΈ Judicial Unification & Eastern Border Shield | |
#19+6 | US Senate Texas β Lone Star High-Turnout Battleground United StatesSenate | π₯ SURGING | 801/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity79/100 Lead +3.4% (51.2β47.8)69% Win | π·οΈ Border Security & Tech Corridor Growth | |
#20+4 |  Turkey Presidential & Parliamentary ElectionsTurkeyPresidential | β‘ VOLATILE | 794/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity78/100 CHP 42% vs AK Party 36% (Toss-up)50% Win | π·οΈ Inflation & Constitutional Term Reform | |
#21+3 |  Italy Chamber of Deputies General ElectionItalyParliamentary | β EXPLODING | 788/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity77/100 FdI-Lega-FI 45% vs PD 24%72% Win | π·οΈ EU Fiscal Deficit & Mattei Plan | |
#22β |  Spain Cortes Generales General ElectionSpainParliamentary | π₯ SURGING | 782/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity76/100 PP 34% vs PSOE 30% vs Vox 13%61% Win | π·οΈ Amnesty Law & Regional Coalitions | |
#23β |  Argentina National Congress MidtermsArgentinaParliamentary | π RISING | 776/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity76/100 LLA 38% vs Peronism 32% vs PRO 15%67% Win | π·οΈ Dollarization & Omnibus Deregulation | |
#24+5 |  Indonesia Regional Head Elections (Pilkada)IndonesiaGubernatorial | βοΈ STABLE | 770/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity75/100 KIM Plus 52% vs PDI-P 43%63% Win | π·οΈ Nusantara Capital City & Food Subsidies | |
#25-3 |  Philippines Senate & Congressional MidtermsPhilippinesSenate | β‘ VOLATILE | 763/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity74/100 Marcos Slate vs Duterte Slate (Split)53% Win | π·οΈ South China Sea & Marcos-Duterte Feud | |
#26-3 | US Senate Ohio β Heartland Manufacturing Contest United StatesSenate | β EXPLODING | 757/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity73/100 Lead +3.8% (51.8β48.0)70% Win | π·οΈ Steel Tariffs & Intel Silicon Heartland | |
#27-3 |  Nigeria Presidential & National Assembly RaceNigeriaPresidential | π₯ SURGING | 750/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity73/100 APC 39% vs LP 32% vs PDP 24%58% Win | π·οΈ Naira Currency Stability & Fuel Subsidies | |
#28+1 |  Kenya Presidential & Parliamentary ElectionKenyaPresidential | π RISING | 744/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity72/100 Ruto 47% vs Gen Z / Opposition 46%51% Win | π·οΈ Finance Bill Taxes & Youth Protests | |
#29+1 |  Chile Presidential Election β La Moneda ContestChilePresidential | βοΈ STABLE | 738/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity71/100 Matthei 46% vs Kast 32% vs Left 22%65% Win | π·οΈ Lithium National Policy & Crime Prevention | |
#30-1 |  Colombia Presidential Election β Casa de NariΓ±oColombiaPresidential | β‘ VOLATILE | 731/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity71/100 Opposition 51% vs Pacto HistΓ³rico 43%59% Win | π·οΈ Healthcare Reform & Energy Transition | |
#31-1 | US Senate Arizona β Desert Swing Battleground United StatesSenate | β EXPLODING | 725/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity70/100 Lead +1.1% (49.8β48.7)52% Win | π·οΈ Water Rights & Border Infrastructure | |
#32+4 | US Senate Nevada β Silver State Service Workers United StatesSenate | π₯ SURGING | 719/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity69/100 Lead +0.8% (49.4β48.6)51% Win | π·οΈ Tips Tax Exemption & Hospitality Unions | |
#33+5 |  Netherlands Tweede Kamer General ElectionNetherlandsParliamentary | π RISING | 712/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity69/100 PVV 32 seats vs GL-PvdA 26 seats57% Win | π·οΈ Asylum Opt-Out & Nitrogen Reduction Rules | |
#34-3 | US Senate North Carolina β Research Triangle Swing United StatesSenate | βοΈ STABLE | 706/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity68/100 Thom Tillis +2.2% vs Dem Challenge62% Win | π·οΈ Tech Investment & Public Education | |
#35+3 |  Israel 26th Knesset Parliamentary ElectionIsraelParliamentary | β‘ VOLATILE | 700/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity68/100 Opposition Bloc 64 vs Coalition 56 seats58% Win | π·οΈ Security Enclave & Ultra-Orthodox Conscription | |
#36β |  Singapore 15th General ElectionSingaporeParliamentary | β EXPLODING | 693/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity67/100 PAP 62% vs WP 33%92% Win | π·οΈ Cost of Living & Forward Singapore Accord | |
#37+4 |  Pakistan National Assembly General ElectionPakistanParliamentary | π₯ SURGING | 687/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity67/100 PTI Independents vs PML-N/PPP Coalition50% Win | π·οΈ IMF Bailout Reforms & Inflation Relief | |
#38β |  Bangladesh Jatiya Sangsad National ElectionBangladeshParliamentary | π RISING | 681/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity66/100 Interim Consensus 65% vs BNP 25%70% Win | π·οΈ Institutional Constitutional Overhaul | |
#39-2 |  Austria National Council Parliamentary ElectionAustriaParliamentary | βοΈ STABLE | 675/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity65/100 FPΓ 29% vs ΓVP 26% vs SPΓ 21%59% Win | π·οΈ Russian Gas Disconnect & Neutrality Status | |
#40+2 |  Switzerland Federal Assembly National CouncilSwitzerlandParliamentary | β‘ VOLATILE | 668/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity65/100 SVP 28.5% vs SP 18.0% vs FDP 14.5%85% Win | π·οΈ Banking Secrecy Reform & EU Bilateral Accords | |
#41+3 |  Romania Presidential & Parliamentary ElectionRomaniaPresidential | β EXPLODING | 662/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity64/100 Pro-EU Coalition 52% vs AUR 38%60% Win | π·οΈ Black Sea Defense Corridor & Energy Independence | |
#42-3 |  Egypt Presidential Election β Cairo MandateEgyptPresidential | π₯ SURGING | 656/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity63/100 Incumbent Mandate 88%95% Win | π·οΈ Suez Canal Revenues & New Capital Expansion | |
#43+3 |  Ghana Presidential & Parliamentary ElectionGhanaPresidential | π RISING | 650/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity63/100 NDC 49% vs NPP 47% (Toss-up)52% Win | π·οΈ Cocoa Export Prices & Gold-for-Oil Policy | |
#44+2 |  Peru Presidential & Bicameral Congress ElectionPeruPresidential | βοΈ STABLE | 643/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity62/100 Runoff: Keiko Fujimori 48% vs Antauro Humala 47%50% Win | π·οΈ Copper Mine Concessions & Political Stability | |
#45-2 |  Vietnam 14th National Party CongressVietnamParliamentary | β‘ VOLATILE | 637/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity62/100 Four Pillars Consensus Model98% Win | π·οΈ Anti-Corruption Blazing Furnace & US Trade Status | |
#46+2 |  Thailand House of Representatives ElectionThailandParliamentary | β EXPLODING | 631/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity61/100 Peopleβs Party 42% vs Pheu Thai 29%62% Win | π·οΈ LΓ¨se-MajestΓ© Reform & Digital Wallet Handouts | |
#47+1 |  Ireland DΓ‘il Γireann Parliamentary ElectionIrelandParliamentary | π₯ SURGING | 625/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity60/100 Fine Gael 26% vs Fianna FΓ‘il 24% vs Sinn FΓ©in 19%66% Win | π·οΈ Sovereign Wealth Fund & Housing Crisis | |
#48-3 |  Belgium Chamber of Representatives ElectionBelgiumParliamentary | π RISING | 618/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity60/100 N-VA 22% vs Vlaams Belang 21% vs MR 18%55% Win | π·οΈ Flemish Autonomy & Federal Budget Deficit | |
#49β |  Greece Hellenic Parliament General ElectionGreeceParliamentary | βοΈ STABLE | 612/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity59/100 New Democracy 32% vs PASOK 20% vs SYRIZA 11%71% Win | π·οΈ Investment Grade Rating & Tourism Infrastructure | |
#50β |  Portugal Assembly of the Republic ElectionPortugalParliamentary | β‘ VOLATILE | 605/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity59/100 AD 31% vs PS 29% vs Chega 18%56% Win | π·οΈ Tax Relief for Youth & Immigrant Visas |
#51-1 |  Czech Chamber of Deputies ElectionCzech RepublicParliamentary | βοΈ STABLE | 600/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity58/100 Competitive (48β46)47% Win | π·οΈ ANO Coalition & Energy Tariffs | |
#52+3 |  Hungary National Assembly Parliamentary RaceHungaryParliamentary | π RISING | 598/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity58/100 Competitive (48β46)47% Win | π·οΈ Tisza Party Momentum & EU Cohesion Funds | |
#53-3 |  Norway Storting Parliamentary ElectionNorwayParliamentary | π FADING | 596/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity58/100 Competitive (48β46)64% Win | π·οΈ Oil Fund Wealth Tax & Green Transition | |
#54-1 |  Denmark Folketing Parliamentary ElectionDenmarkParliamentary | π€ DORMANT | 594/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity57/100 Competitive (48β46)50% Win | π·οΈ Defense Spending & Healthcare Reorganization | |
#55-2 |  Finland Eduskunta Parliamentary Election β οΈ High Manipulation RiskFinlandParliamentary | β‘ VOLATILE | 592/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity57/100 Competitive (48β46)56% Win | π·οΈ Eastern Border Fence & Labor Reform | |
#56+2 | Vienna City Council & Mayoral Election AustriaMunicipal | βοΈ STABLE | 590/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity57/100 Competitive (48β46)48% Win | π·οΈ Municipal Housing Subsidies & Energy Security | |
#57β |  Morocco House of Representatives ElectionMoroccoParliamentary | π RISING | 588/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity56/100 Competitive (48β46)61% Win | π·οΈ World Cup 2030 Infrastructure & Green Hydrogen | |
#58-3 |  Algeria Peopleβs National Assembly ElectionAlgeriaParliamentary | π FADING | 586/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity56/100 Competitive (48β46)56% Win | π·οΈ Natural Gas Export Deals & Sahara Corridor | |
#59-3 |  Tunisia Assembly of the Representatives ElectionTunisiaParliamentary | π€ DORMANT | 584/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity56/100 Competitive (48β46)59% Win | π·οΈ Constitutional Presidentialism & IMF Negotiations | |
#60β |  Senegal National Assembly General ElectionSenegalParliamentary | β‘ VOLATILE | 582/ 1,000 VMS | Attention Velocity55/100 Competitive (48β46)60% Win | π·οΈ Offshore Gas Contracts & Youth Sovereignty |
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